Vol. 10 No. 3 (2024): MOLIYA VA BANK ISHI
Issue Articles

Composite indicators of business activity surveys for nowcasting economic growth

pdf (Русский)
  • Murad Raxmanov
Murad Raxmanov
Markaziy bank

Published 2024-08-13

Keywords

  • business activity surveys,
  • economic sentiment index,
  • business climate index,
  • vector autoregression,
  • dummy variables

How to Cite

Raxmanov, M. (2024). Composite indicators of business activity surveys for nowcasting economic growth. FINANCE AND BANKING, 10(3), 67–74. Retrieved from https://journal.bfa.uz/index.php/bfaj/article/view/245

Abstract

The paper evaluates the efficiency of using aggregated results of business activity surveys for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of GDP growth, and compares the forecasting capabilities of various composite indicators based on such surveys. The empirical basis of the study is the results of business activity and consumer expectations surveys of Rosstat, as well as the monitoring of enterprises of the Bank of Russia, aggregated into indices of economic sentiment and business climate, respectively. A close correlation between the dynamics of each composite indicator and the index of physical volume of GDP, as well as the presence of Granger causality between them, is revealed. Three versions of the vector autoregressive model with dummy variables are constructed. According to the obtained parameters of the quality of intra-sample forecasts, the smallest errors are given by the specification including a combination of composite indicators.

pdf (Русский)

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